US Air CEO David Siegel to speak at the POC

Members: Register For February

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US Airways

Dealing with 30,000 employees, 300 planes, over 3,000 daily flights, Union negotiations, low cost competitors and the aftermath of 9-11, are all reasons that David Siegel , of US Airways is in the news. He is a CEO with a lot on his mind. Formerly the CEO of Avis and President of Continental Express, Siegel is used to the demanding role of leadership. But what can prepare you for the dog eat dog competition of the global airline industry?

Thanks to Wealth and Tax Advisory Services(WTAS) , the Potomac Officers Club is able to present the CEO of US Airways, David Siegel to its members. Every senior executive will benefit from the lessons learned at US Airways. The business community, and particularly local businesses that depend on National Airport, are watching the skies closely. The Washington Post has been bringing many headline stories over the past years and headlines yet to be written. We hope members will register here and be part of the event.

The POC continues its membership drive and offers CXO level executives of companies with $10mm in annual revenues the best seat in town and the best place to meet other executives.

Click here to register for the next event.

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Right: Over 75% of Potomac Officers Club members expect their firm to create new jobs in 2004.

Business Conditions and Trends (Increasing at a decreasing rate)

By Glen Passin, Tatum Partners

Based on survey questions in the areas of general business conditions, sales backlog, capital expenditures, employment and availability of capital, our results as of February showed overall that following the surge of growth in the US economy in the third quarter (GDP up 8.2%), the vigor declined in the fourth quarter (first estimates up 4%). The rate of improvement in business conditions peaked in August and declined from September through January. The economy is still growing, probably at a 3.5 to 4% rate.

Specifically, looking back over the last 30 days for the month of January, the results showed a slightly less upbeat outlook about business activity, which was very similar to the results from December. Looking forward to the next 60 days, 65% of the respondents expected business conditions to improve.

When asked about sales backlog, the respondents sent a mixed message. The positive sign was that more of the respondent saw an increase in backlog in January compared to December (38% vs. 35%). The negative sign was that there was a decline in the percentage of the respondents who said that they expected sales backlog to increase in the next 60 days. For this month, 50 % of the respondents said they expected sales backlog to increase in the near term. In December the percentage of respondents who answered positively was 54%. In November the percentage was also 50%.

Click here to access the complete survey.

The Tatum Survey of Business Conditions is a survey conducted by Tatum Partners of its 450 partners who, in the role of CFO or CIO, assist organizations undertaking significant change. The purpose of the survey is to determine what experienced chief financial and information officers, working across the nation, see as the recent and near term trends. Sam Norwood and Glen Passin, who are partners at Tatum, conduct this survey and analyze the results each month. Glen works in the Washington, DC area and is a member of the Potomac Officers Club.

Is An IO for U?

Interest Only mortgages are getting lots of attention lately, but as with any loan program, you need to understand how it works before you decide to choose one. In a traditional mortgage, you borrow money for 30 years, and the interest rate you pay is fixed. Each month, you send a payment to the lender, and that payment consists of both interest and principal. But with an IO loan, you pay only the interest portion of the payment. As a result, your payment is less (because you're not paying the principal portion of the loan) and your entire payment is tax-deductible (because it is going entirely toward the interest you owe).

So, what's wrong with interest only financing? In my opinion, nothing. In fact, if you plan to sell your house in less than 5 years, this financing may be your best option. But there are two aspects to the IO loan that you need to consider before deciding to choose such a loan. To find out more, go to: http://www.ricedelman.com/planning/home/iou.asp

Be Careful What you Brag About

So, here's my question: Will John Edwards' kids not be qualified to run for President?

Why? Well, I keep hearing him say that a really important difference between him and Kerry is that he grew up as the son of a mill worker, so he feels people's pain and all that, whereas Kerry was more privileged.

Sounds terribly logical, right? Except that now that Edwards' kids are being raised by parents with (according to reports) at least $50 million in the bank, I guess they must be incapable of necessary presidential empathy. Someone ought to ask him in a debate if he would hold that against them someday if they try to follow in his footsteps.

And thus the paradox: there can only be one log cabin generation per successful family. Once someone from humble roots strikes it rich and famous, what do you know, their progeny are suddenly the opposite! If Edwards hung out with and loved just ordinary people as a kid himself, the last people he ever would have associated with would have been kids like his own.

Of course, this logic also seems to be disproven by history. FDR and John Kennedy and Ted Kennedy and countless others have had silver spoon upbringings, but become liberals who seem to identify most with the downtrodden. And kids from poor broken homes like Ronald Reagan have become conservatives who supposedly identify only with the voices of business.

I don't know about you, but in my own experience, I don't see any real pattern. Some of the most aloof and insenstive people are precisely the "nouveaux" who have been poor and apparently never want to think about it again. And some of the most caring and generous are those who perhaps feel guilty about their finer status or as a directly result have the free time and resources to worry about the other half.

Edwards should ask "St. Albans Al" (Gore) what he thinks about this.

Digital Combo's

Gary Arlen is a nationally recognized commentator and advisor on communications, media and digital technology. He heads Arlen Communications Inc., a Bethesda, MD, research and consulting firm.

Back in the 1950s and into the '60s, the coolest homes had those clunky "home entertainment centers" - often faux-wood consoles usually including a turntable, radio tuner (some with that new FM-band service) and a TV set. Too bad that you couldn't really listen to records if your parents wanted to watch TV in the same room. This was an era before multiple TV sets in every home and a Walkman for every pair of ears.

Component audio systems and cheap TV sets eventually conquered that arcane combination unit - although the desire for efficient use of entertainment real estate still prompts the creation of devices that bring together many services within one box.   TV sets with either a built-in VCR or DVD player (but rarely both) are a popular implementation, although always bought with the fear that when the VCR or DVD component conks out, you're stick with just another TV monitor.

Nonetheless, electronics makers love the mix-and-match concept - leading to the next wave of combination units.  Among the most appealing factors in this assault is the hard-disk drive (HDD), which is used for digital capture of shows. TiVO and ReplayTV were first to market with such standalone Digital Video Recorders (also called Personal Video Recorders:  DVRs or PVRs).  The first combo units incorporating DVRs are set-top boxes for DirecTV and EchoStar. Cable companies, including Cox Cable and Comcast in the Washington area, now offer similar set-top box/HDD combos in selected cable systems.

Coming next are boxes that add the exciting DVD-recording formats to the DVR functions. Right now standalone DVD-R devices are in the over-$400 range (usually considerably over).  But by yearend, $200 DVD-R boxes will hit the market.
(Admittedly, the ongoing debate about which is the best of 3 or 4 different DVD-recordable formats may slow your decision to buy.)

The combo DVR + DVD-R opens the opportunity for many pleasures. You can capture a show  (or series) on the hard disc drive, then transfer/record it over to the DVD-R.  That allows you to transport the shows to other DVD players (upstairs, at your vacation home or in the backseat of your car) and to keep a library of your favorite programs.

Yes, I'm aware of the copyright maelstrom regarding such digital recording/storage activities.  So be prepared to become part of that fair use fight.

Right now, a handful of companies are selling combo DVR-DVD-recording devices. All are early-adopter pricey.

Pioneer has a couple models.  Its Pioneer DVR-810H, at $1,200, has an 80-Gigabyte HDD that can hold about 80 hours of TV programs.  It comes with the TiVO basic service, which means no start-up or monthly fees. The Pioneer Elite DVR-57H, costing $1,800 features a 120 GB (120 hour) HDD plus two recordable DVD formats: DVD-R (permanent; cannot be erased) or DVD-RW (can be erased/written over many times). The DVR-57H features up to 18x record speed, so you can dub a one-hour show onto the transportable disk in basic extended play format in about 3 minutes.

JVC's first dual-purpose box is its QP- F90AL.  It costs $2,300 and features a 160 GB hard disc drive plus multiformat DVD recorder.

Other manufacturers will bring similar devices to market.  A future array of HDTV-compatible devices awaits some standard-setting in that category.  Of course, that further confirms a basic trait of these CE devices.  Short lifespans.

But enjoy the combo convenience while you await the next generation.

Readers SPAM

"If You Can't Beat'em-Join'em!"
This is the place where we share our members news. Members should include the POC on press releases and we will be sure your fellow members can keep up with your successes. Please email us your company's news at news@potomacofficersclub.com

The Potomac Officers Club welcomes the following new members ...

Brad Steele
Mohamed Hersi
Larry Dressel

Mark Palomba
R.F.Shangraw
Robert Rubin

Timothy Strait
Matt Calkins
William Meares

From the Editor

The newsletter is designed to serve the needs of the POC membership.

Please contact us with your ideas, advertisments or submit columns to be published and reach our distribution of almost 15,000 area executives.

J.D. Kathuria, IBSI, POC Newsletter Editor

jd@liveassistance. com